Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) is used to estimate and project adult HIV prevalence and incidence from surveillance data.
The input to EPP in countries with generalized epidemics is surveillance data from various sites and years showing HIV prevalence among pregnant women, as well as data from national population-based surveys.
The input in countries with concentrated epidemics is data on prevalence in populations with high risk behaviours and populations at low risk, as well as estimates of the size of these populations. EPP is then used to fit a simple epidemic model to the data.
The 2009 version of EPP uses HIV treatment data to improve the estimation of incidence from the prevalence over time.
The national prevalence and incidence projections produced by EPP can be imported into Spectrum to calculate the number of people living with HIV, new HIV infections, AIDS cases, AIDS deaths, treatment needs, AIDS orphans, and other variables.
In countries with a generalized HIV epidemic that have not conducted a national population-based survey, prevalence data from pregnant women attending antenatal clinics (ANC) is adjusted downward for both rural and urban ANC, since HIV prevalence from ANC has been shown to overestimate HIV prevalence in the general population. (Sexually Transmitted Infections, 2008)
EPP 2009 software release 2 (February 2011) install file (51 mb)
Quick Start Guide for EPP and Spectrum 2009 (May 2009) en l es l fr l ru
EPP 2009 manual for generalized epidemics (May 2009) en l fr
EPP 2009 presentation for generalized epidemics (April 2009) en l fr (Part 1) l fr (Part 2)
EPP 2009 manual for concentrated epidemics (May 2009) en l es l fr l ru
EPP 2009 presentation for concentrated epidemics basic en (Part 1) l en (Part 2) l es (Part 1) l es (Part 2) l fr (Part 1) l fr (Part 2)l ru (Part 1) l ru (Part 2)
EPP and Spectrum 2009 presentation for concentrated epidemics new features en l es l fr l ru