UNAIDS annually provides revised global, regional and country-specific modelled estimates using the best available epidemiological and programmatic data to track the HIV epidemic. Modelled estimates are required because it is impossible to count the exact number of people living with HIV, people who are newly infected with HIV or people who have died from AIDS-related causes in any country: doing so would require regularly testing every person for HIV and investigating all deaths, which is logistically impossible and ethically problematic. Modelled estimates—and the lower and upper bounds around these estimates—provide a scientifically appropriate way of describing HIV epidemic levels and trends.
