Evidence for HIV decline in Zimbabwe: a comprehensive review of the epidemiological data

In this report, an assessment is made of the validity of the decline in HIV prevalence observed at antenatal clinics in Zimbabwe by examining this data closely from an epidemiological perspective, and by assessing their consistency with epidemiological and behavioural information from a range of other national sources and in-depth local community studies. Using the available behaviour data and comparison of observed trends in HIV prevalence with counterfactual trends in HIV prevalence—i.e. those expected in the absence of behaviour change—generated by fitting an epidemiological model, assessment of the plausibility that behaviour change has contributed to the recent trends in HIV prevalence and incidence. The findings in this report are based on information collected in an epidemiological review of data on the HIV epidemic in Zimbabwe carried out between November 2004 and June 2005.

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